Got Gold?

As sovereign debt woes continue to weigh on the market, keep gold on your radar. If volume picks up next week I would take a nibble at the GLD. Once up over 120 I would add a little more, if it breaks 112.25 in high volume, I plan on loading the boat.

May 2010 Review

Unless you happen to be a dollar or gold investor, this was a pretty rough month to be swing trading. In fact in hindsight, of course, it would have been a good month to go on vacation. I started off the month with a few losers, but kept the losses to a minimum by utilizing good risk management. I have been mostly day trading the last 3 weeks, which I am not very good at, but did manage to finish the month in the green.

Sector Watch, XLU

Just kicking back on a Sunday afternoon, looking at some sectors and notice the XLU catching a bid the last couple of days. As we get closer to S&P 1230, the infamous "scene of the crime". If we start to get some weakness in the next few weeks, I will be watching this one like a hawk. Utilities have pretty much been dead money this year so far as the machines and the people who program them have been piling in to real estate and regional banks. The utilities would seem to be a smart place to park some cash if we do start to roll over here, although with the overall lack of fear in the market lately, we may have to wait a week or two for this to occur.

Video Analysis, Patriot Coal

Been stalking this one for a while, day traded it a few weeks back made a nice profit in a couple of hours, but this is one that I think has some longer term potential for a swing trade. I am back in now by way of options,putting my money where my mouth is. :)

The Mad Pumper(s)

After this mornings wallet flush, I wondered what the machines where up to. What where they selling, the fact that they where bidding up the IYR was obvious. I mean is Simon Property (SPG) really worth 3.5% more now then 24 hours ago? How about my personal fave Vornado Realty (VNO) trust up 4%?
Alas, it would appear that they may be starting to unwind a little of their exposure to regional banks. They did a nice hatchet job on Whitney Holding Corp (WTNY), down 3.5% today, or how about PacWest Bankcorp (PACW) down 3.4%. I personally would have picked on Webster Financial (WBS), but that's just me.
I am not trying to discourage anyone, exactly the opposite. Nobody cares more about your money then YOU. Stay alert, stick with your plan, and trade em well.

The "Algo Wallet Flush"

This morning we had a pattern on the 5 day 5 minute chart of the S&P Mini's, that I like to call the "Wallet Flush". We barely broke the 1186.25 S2 level to the downside on some pretty good volume. Then shot back over it in short order. I have been seeing this pattern a lot over the last week or two. Basically the quants fired up the machines at around 10 EST, went on a selling spree just long enough to shake a lot of folks out, then bought into the selling. As of this writing the minis are just above the upper falling trend line on the chart at 1192.75, one would think they would want to get it just above 1194 before the next selling spree. A lot of people seem to think they can not beat the machines, and I am not advocating betting against them, but remember the quants that program these things are people too, and as long as you are aware of what is going on, and stick to your trading discipline you can beat them.

Position Update, WYNN

Earlier in the week I wrote about a position I put on in WYNN. Entry was 81.62. Took 1/2 off today at 86.70 and moved the stop to break even. I still like it for a move to around the 95 area, but I never hurt myself taking a profit. Now that I have some profit, if the market agrees with my analysis, I can participate to the upside, if the market disagrees it was still a decent trade. The best lesson I can teach you is this: THE MARKET IS NEVER WRONG!