Sunday, April 25, 2010

Sector Watch, XLU

Just kicking back on a Sunday afternoon, looking at some sectors and notice the XLU catching a bid the last couple of days. As we get closer to S&P 1230, the infamous "scene of the crime". If we start to get some weakness in the next few weeks, I will be watching this one like a hawk. Utilities have pretty much been dead money this year so far as the machines and the people who program them have been piling in to real estate and regional banks. The utilities would seem to be a smart place to park some cash if we do start to roll over here, although with the overall lack of fear in the market lately, we may have to wait a week or two for this to occur.

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Video Analysis, Patriot Coal

Been stalking this one for a while, day traded it a few weeks back made a nice profit in a couple of hours, but this is one that I think has some longer term potential for a swing trade. I am back in now by way of options,putting my money where my mouth is. :)

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

The Mad Pumper(s)

After this mornings wallet flush, I wondered what the machines where up to. What where they selling, the fact that they where bidding up the IYR was obvious. I mean is Simon Property (SPG) really worth 3.5% more now then 24 hours ago? How about my personal fave Vornado Realty (VNO) trust up 4%?
Alas, it would appear that they may be starting to unwind a little of their exposure to regional banks. They did a nice hatchet job on Whitney Holding Corp (WTNY), down 3.5% today, or how about PacWest Bankcorp (PACW) down 3.4%. I personally would have picked on Webster Financial (WBS), but that's just me.
I am not trying to discourage anyone, exactly the opposite. Nobody cares more about your money then YOU. Stay alert, stick with your plan, and trade em well.

The "Algo Wallet Flush"

This morning we had a pattern on the 5 day 5 minute chart of the S&P Mini's, that I like to call the "Wallet Flush". We barely broke the 1186.25 S2 level to the downside on some pretty good volume. Then shot back over it in short order. I have been seeing this pattern a lot over the last week or two. Basically the quants fired up the machines at around 10 EST, went on a selling spree just long enough to shake a lot of folks out, then bought into the selling. As of this writing the minis are just above the upper falling trend line on the chart at 1192.75, one would think they would want to get it just above 1194 before the next selling spree. A lot of people seem to think they can not beat the machines, and I am not advocating betting against them, but remember the quants that program these things are people too, and as long as you are aware of what is going on, and stick to your trading discipline you can beat them.

Friday, April 9, 2010

Position Update, WYNN

Earlier in the week I wrote about a position I put on in WYNN. Entry was 81.62. Took 1/2 off today at 86.70 and moved the stop to break even. I still like it for a move to around the 95 area, but I never hurt myself taking a profit. Now that I have some profit, if the market agrees with my analysis, I can participate to the upside, if the market disagrees it was still a decent trade. The best lesson I can teach you is this: THE MARKET IS NEVER WRONG!

ETF Watch, IYR

This daily chart of the IYR should be enough to keep the bears in hibernation for a bit longer. The higher lows over the last couple of weeks on muted volume have this one lookin good. I would wait until we clear $52 on some volume before entering here. If that happens, we could get pretty close to $60. Trade em well!

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Market Musings, 2004 Part Deux?

I think that I have seen this market movie before, and I did not like it the first time. If we take a look at the S&P chart above we can see after a nice gain in 2003, the market decided to consolidate for about 10 months before moving higher in November. If you have been trading for the last 6 or 8 weeks these markets seem choppy on a day trading time frame as well as a swing trading time frame. Basically we have had to work hard for every penny. Even though the overall trend remains up, we just seem to be churning here, mostly on lower volume. We could be correcting a little by time as opposed to price, but if this churning continues without further upside and volume comes in we could be in for a correction. It's early in the month but I do not like that ugly hanging man candle forming on this chart for April. Trade em well!

New Position, Northstar Reality

Opened a position today in $NRF. With the strength in the $IYR the last couple of days. Stop is just below $4.50, looking for an initial move to $5.00.

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

New Postion, Chipolte Mexican Grill

Love this one, been waiting for a breakout on some decent volume, today my patience paid off. Estableshed a position in this one at $118.64. This one should have some upside left, moving averages all headed up, chart looks good.

Monday, April 5, 2010

Stock Stalking, Vanceinfo Technologies

Been hunting this one for a few weeks. I like the setup if it can clear the consolidation over the last week or so in heavy volume. This stock seems to like the month of April over the last 2 years gaining an average of 44%. I'm not ready to establish a full position until it breaks out, but may take a nibble this week. Worth keeping on your radar.

Stock Stalking, Patriot Coal

Patriot ($PCX) looks ready to rip to the upside here. I day traded this one last Monday for a small gain, but want to look at getting back in on a close at or above 22. A couple of the guys over at stocktwits think it could really get going at that level, I have to agree.

Sunday, April 4, 2010

Stock Stalking , Foster Wheeler

When stalking for potential buys this weekend I came accross a nice inverse head and shoulders pattern on Foster Wheeler. ($FWLT)

The Daily chart looks good:

A little further investigation revealed this nasty looking weekly chart though:

With the market in an overall uptrend, it could break out, watch for a close above 32 on high volume and keep your stop tight, this could be a bull trap.